Week 8 · Away
NE@MIA
Sun, Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET · CBS
Hard Rock Stadium
Wind 15 mph · 82% chance of precip · NE -7 · O/U 43.5 (betting market, not a prediction)
We're heading to Miami on Sunday as a touchdown favorite, and honestly, the numbers tell a story almost too good to be true: our pass offense (77/100) is playing against their pass defense (3/100), the widest statistical mismatch on the board this week. That's not hyperbole—that's a generational gap in one matchup. Yes, we'll need to account for their elite rush offense (90/100) that'll test our average run defense (55/100), and we can't overlook their elite pass rush... oh wait, they don't have one (3/100). The real variable here is us: we're clicking at +0.15 EPA per play over our last three games while Miami's been underwater at -0.06. With our secondary healthy and ready, this looks like a game where our strengths line up perfectly against their weaknesses—assuming we don't beat ourselves in the 4:25 PM sun.
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League rank of 32 by EPA per play, and success rate — how often a play improves the offense's chances of scoring (for a defense, how often it allows that).
Pass Offense vs. Pass Defense
Our pass offense grades 77/100 (above average) against MIA's pass defense at 3/100 (among the NFL's worst) — the widest statistical edge on the board this week.