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The Foxboro Beacon

Wed, Sep 9 · Lumen Field

Loss
NE logo10–13SEA logo

at SEA

The Take

Well, that was precisely the sort of road loss that stings because the Patriots were right there—close enough to taste it, far enough away to leave empty-handed. Down 13-10 against Seattle in a night game at Lumen Field, New England's offense sputtered when it mattered most, converting just 31% of third downs (below the league's 40% norm) while the defense, to its credit, held the Seahawks to an anemic 18% on third-down conversions and forced them to settle for field goals on two of their three red-zone trips. But here's the rub: the Patriots managed only one touchdown from two red-zone opportunities of their own, the offense posted a minus-0.11 EPA per play, and a brutal minus-3 turnover margin gave Seattle chances it didn't have to earn. A.J. Brown, who accounted for 6% of New England's win probability added, showed up as a receiver, but it wasn't nearly enough to overcome the sloppiness elsewhere. The stats tell you this game was eminently winnable—it just wasn't won.

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Win Probability

Advanced Stats

Offensive EPA/play
-0.11
Defensive EPA/play
0.07
Success Rate (off/def)
42% / 40%

Share of plays that improved the offense's chances of scoring. League average this season: 44%.

Turnover Margin
-3

EPA is from New England's side: positive helped New England. Play text is the NFL's own.

New England turnovers (3)

  1. Q4 14:27 · 2nd & 9 at SEA 45EPA -3.89Interception

    10-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 28-N.Pritchett (24-R.Thomas) at SEA 3. 28-N.Pritchett to SEA 33 for 30 yards (55-J.Wilson).

  2. Q4 9:25 · 3rd & 14 at NE 22EPA -1.92Interception

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle intended for 3-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at NE 47. 20-J.Love to NE 47 for no gain (3-D.Douglas).

  3. Q4 0:26 · 3rd & 5 at SEA 16EPA -2.67Interception

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.

Takeaways (0)

None.

Explosive Play Rate (for/against)
7% / 13%

EPA is from New England's side: positive helped New England. Play text is the NFL's own.

New England explosive plays (5) — runs of 10+ and passes of 15+ yards

  1. Q1 11:07 · 2nd & 7 at NE 11EPA +1.0610 yds

    10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to NE 21 for 10 yards (13-E.Jones; 21-D.Witherspoon).

  2. Q2 2:00 · 2nd & 9 at NE 30EPA +1.2116 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left tackle ran ob at NE 46 for 16 yards (13-E.Jones).

  3. Q3 3:06 · 1st & 15 at NE 27EPA +1.4817 yds

    10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at NE 44 for 17 yards (13-E.Jones).

  4. Q4 4:41 · 2nd & 21 at NE 16EPA +1.4519 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 13-M.Hollins to NE 35 for 19 yards (24-R.Thomas).

  5. Q4 3:42 · 1st & 10 at NE 40EPA +0.8212 yds

    38-R.Stevenson right guard to SEA 48 for 12 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 24-R.Thomas).

SEA explosive plays (6) — runs of 10+ and passes of 15+ yards

  1. Q1 14:55 · 1st & 10 at SEA 24EPA -1.1113 yds

    8-J.Price right tackle to SEA 37 for 13 yards (31-K.Byard; 91-E.Ponder).

  2. Q1 1:22 · 1st & 10 at SEA 14EPA -0.8212 yds

    8-J.Price right end pushed ob at SEA 26 for 12 yards (0-C.Gonzalez). ** Injury Update: NE-7-C.Davis has returned to the game.

  3. Q2 5:39 · 3rd & 22 at SEA 33EPA -1.1021 yds

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to NE 46 for 21 yards (4-C.Woodson).

  4. Q3 5:36 · 3rd & 4 at NE 37EPA -2.5524 yds

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 10-C.Kupp to NE 13 for 24 yards (25-M.Jones) [90-C.Barmore].

  5. Q4 11:38 · 4th & 1 at NE 45EPA -6.1445 yds

    2-D.Lock pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  6. Q4 6:42 · 1st & 15 at NE 17EPA -1.7314 yds

    2-D.Lock scrambles left tackle pushed ob at NE 3 for 14 yards (25-M.Jones).

Red Zone (off/def)
1/2 · 1/3

EPA is from New England's side: positive helped New England. Play text is the NFL's own.

New England red-zone trip 1 of 2 · Touchdown

  1. Q2 9:14 · 1st & Goal at SEA 2EPA +0.84Touchdown

    70-G.Van Roten reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

New England red-zone trip 2 of 2 · Turnover

  1. Q4 0:26 · 3rd & 5 at SEA 16EPA -2.67

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.

SEA red-zone trip 1 of 3 · Field goal

  1. Q3 4:50 · 1st & 10 at NE 13EPA +0.45

    (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani up the middle to NE 11 for 2 yards (97-M.Williams).

  2. Q3 4:12 · 2nd & 8 at NE 11EPA +0.19

    (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right end to NE 7 for 4 yards (50-G.Jacas).

  3. Q3 3:25 · 3rd & 4 at NE 7EPA +0.61

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on SEA, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at NE 7 - No Play.

  4. Q3 3:21 · 3rd & 9 at NE 12EPA +1.08

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba [5-D.Jones].

  5. Q3 3:16 · 4th & 9 at NE 12EPA -0.17

    5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

SEA red-zone trip 2 of 3 · Touchdown

None.

SEA red-zone trip 3 of 3 · Field goal

  1. Q4 6:42 · 1st & 10 at NE 12EPA +0.67

    PENALTY on SEA-75-A.Bradford, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 12 - No Play.

  2. Q4 6:42 · 1st & 15 at NE 17EPA -1.73

    2-D.Lock scrambles left tackle pushed ob at NE 3 for 14 yards (25-M.Jones).

  3. Q4 5:59 · 2nd & 1 at NE 3EPA +1.16

    PENALTY on SEA, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NE 3 - No Play.

  4. Q4 5:59 · 2nd & 6 at NE 8EPA +0.80

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (0-C.Gonzalez).

  5. Q4 5:56 · 3rd & 6 at NE 8EPA +1.05

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.

  6. Q4 5:53 · 4th & 6 at NE 8EPA -0.08

    5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

3rd Down (off/def)
5/16 · 2/11

EPA is from New England's side: positive helped New England. Play text is the NFL's own.

New England on third down — 5 of 16 converted

  1. Q1 9:14 · 3rd & 5 at NE 26EPA +2.15Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end pushed ob at NE 27 for 1 yard (91-B.Murphy). PENALTY on SEA-58-D.Hall, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 27.

  2. Q1 7:41 · 3rd & 7 at NE 45EPA -1.54Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right [21-D.Witherspoon].

  3. Q1 2:12 · 3rd & 1 at NE 41EPA -2.12Stopped

    38-R.Stevenson right guard to NE 40 for -1 yards (20-J.Love).

  4. Q2 13:28 · 3rd & 4 at NE 29EPA +1.16Converted

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas ran ob at NE 34 for 5 yards.

  5. Q2 11:08 · 3rd & 4 at SEA 49EPA +1.21Converted

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 1-A.Brown to SEA 44 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe).

  6. Q2 3:18 · 3rd & 3 at NE 15EPA +1.57Converted

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 1-A.Brown to NE 29 for 14 yards (28-N.Pritchett).

  7. Q2 1:03 · 3rd & 5 at SEA 49EPA -1.07Stopped

    (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to SEA 47 for 2 yards (13-E.Jones; 99-L.Williams).

  8. Q3 13:30 · 3rd & 4 at NE 48EPA -1.86Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 1-A.Brown (28-N.Pritchett). NE-1-A.Brown was injured during the play.

  9. Q3 12:38 · 3rd & 10 at SEA 37EPA -0.69Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson to SEA 32 for 5 yards (20-J.Love; 21-D.Witherspoon).

  10. Q3 8:11 · 3rd & 11 at NE 5EPA -0.50Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 11 for 6 yards (13-E.Jones).

  11. Q3 0:43 · 3rd & 8 at NE 46EPA +1.82Converted

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to SEA 46 for 8 yards (24-R.Thomas).

  12. Q4 9:25 · 3rd & 14 at NE 22EPA -1.92Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle intended for 3-D.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at NE 47. 20-J.Love to NE 47 for no gain (3-D.Douglas).

  13. Q4 3:55 · 3rd & 2 at NE 35EPA -1.32Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Doubs.

  14. Q4 2:10 · 3rd & 19 at NE 43EPA -0.60Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry to SEA 47 for 10 yards (13-E.Jones).

  15. Q4 0:44 · 3rd & 1 at SEA 27EPA +0.99Converted

    70-G.Van Roten reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye scrambles left end ran ob at SEA 21 for 6 yards (29-J.Jobe).

  16. Q4 0:26 · 3rd & 5 at SEA 16EPA -2.67Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.

SEA on third down — 2 of 11 converted

  1. Q1 12:27 · 3rd & 6 at NE 46EPA +2.05Stopped

    (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 49 for -5 yards (5-D.Jones). SEA-14-S.Darnold was injured during the play.

  2. Q1 5:19 · 3rd & 2 at SEA 29EPA +1.36Stopped

    (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani right guard to SEA 30 for 1 yard (14-R.Spillane).

  3. Q2 15:00 · 3rd & 5 at SEA 31EPA +1.40Stopped

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete deep left to 10-C.Kupp (0-C.Gonzalez).

  4. Q2 5:39 · 3rd & 22 at SEA 33EPA -1.10Stopped

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to NE 46 for 21 yards (4-C.Woodson).

  5. Q2 0:39 · 3rd & 5 at SEA 12EPA -0.37Converted

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 18 for 6 yards (53-C.Elliss).

  6. Q2 0:17 · 3rd & 6 at SEA 22EPA +0.04Stopped

    (Shotgun) 36-G.Holani left guard to SEA 26 for 4 yards (90-C.Barmore).

  7. Q3 10:18 · 3rd & 8 at SEA 44EPA +1.06Stopped

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 48 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane) [5-D.Jones].

  8. Q3 5:36 · 3rd & 4 at NE 37EPA -2.55Converted

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 10-C.Kupp to NE 13 for 24 yards (25-M.Jones) [90-C.Barmore].

  9. Q3 3:21 · 3rd & 9 at NE 12EPA +1.08Stopped

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba [5-D.Jones].

  10. Q4 12:20 · 3rd & 1 at NE 45EPA +1.59Stopped

    74-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson right guard to NE 45 for no gain (97-M.Williams).

  11. Q4 5:56 · 3rd & 6 at NE 8EPA +1.05Stopped

    (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.

Player of the Game (Win Probability Added)
A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown
+6% WPA

Mostly as a receiver.

EPA is from New England's side: positive helped New England. Play text is the NFL's own.

Every play credited to A.Brown (win probability added)

  1. Q1 3:24 · 1st & 10 at NE 32EPA +0.33+0.1% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 1-A.Brown pushed ob at NE 39 for 7 yards (28-N.Pritchett).

  2. Q2 11:08 · 3rd & 4 at SEA 49EPA +1.21+3.9% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 1-A.Brown to SEA 44 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe).

  3. Q2 3:18 · 3rd & 3 at NE 15EPA +1.57+4.5% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 1-A.Brown to NE 29 for 14 yards (28-N.Pritchett).

  4. Q3 13:30 · 3rd & 4 at NE 48EPA -1.86-2.7% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 1-A.Brown (28-N.Pritchett). NE-1-A.Brown was injured during the play.

Good, Bad & Ugly

Good
  • Held SEA to 2 of 11 on third down (18%), well below the 40% league norm.
  • Allowed SEA touchdowns on 1 of 3 red-zone trips (33%), well below the 55% league norm.
Bad
  • The offense averaged -0.11 EPA per play — worse than an average offense.
  • The defense allowed +0.07 EPA per play — worse than an average defense.
Ugly
  • Lost the turnover battle by 3 — too many extra possessions to hand an opponent.