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The Foxboro Beacon

Thu, Oct 22 · Soldier Field

Loss
NE logo24–30CHI logo

at CHI

The Take

Well, that stung. Drake Maye was excellent—17% win probability added, mostly through the air—but it wasn't quite enough to overcome a night where our defense got thoroughly worked on third downs and in the red zone alike. Caleb Williams and the Bears capitalized where it mattered most: they hit 75% of their red-zone trips (same as us, which is the problem—that shouldn't happen to a Patriots defense), and even though both teams struggled on third down, Chicago's 31% conversion rate beat our 29%, and in a six-point game, those margins add up. We had an offensive efficiency advantage (0.18 EPA/play versus their 0.20), which feels like a moral victory precisely when we need actual victories, and our turnover margin didn't help matters either. The loss stings more because it's our first to Chicago since 2022, which means we'd had their number for a while—until tonight, when we couldn't quite close it out on the road.

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What Stood Out

  1. The first loss to CHI since 2022.

    Compared against every Patriots game against CHI since 1999 (8 games).

Win Probability

Advanced Stats

Offensive EPA/play
0.18
Defensive EPA/play
0.20
Success Rate (off/def)
47% / 46%

Share of plays that improved the offense's chances of scoring. League average this season: 44%.

Turnover Margin
-1

EPA is from New England's side: positive helped New England. Play text is the NFL's own.

New England turnovers (1)

  1. Q2 3:32 · 1st & 10 at CHI 15EPA -5.27Interception

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 82-E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by 48-D.Jackson at CHI -7. Touchback.

Takeaways (0)

None.

Explosive Play Rate (for/against)
22% / 15%

EPA is from New England's side: positive helped New England. Play text is the NFL's own.

New England explosive plays (11) — runs of 10+ and passes of 15+ yards

  1. Q1 14:49 · 2nd & 10 at NE 31EPA +1.9219 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at 50 for 19 yards (1-J.Johnson).

  2. Q1 0:14 · 3rd & 2 at NE 34EPA +1.6215 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 82-E.Raridon to NE 49 for 15 yards (21-C.Lewis).

  3. Q2 13:31 · 1st & 10 at CHI 36EPA +1.0116 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry to CHI 20 for 16 yards (29-T.Stevenson).

  4. Q2 12:54 · 1st & 10 at CHI 20EPA +0.8613 yds

    38-R.Stevenson left guard to CHI 7 for 13 yards (21-C.Lewis; 29-T.Stevenson).

  5. Q2 6:58 · 1st & 10 at NE 32EPA +1.0016 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 86-E.Chism to NE 48 for 16 yards (31-D.Thieneman).

  6. Q2 4:21 · 2nd & 3 at CHI 30EPA +0.8515 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end to CHI 15 for 15 yards (31-D.Thieneman).

  7. Q2 0:09 · 1st & 10 at NE 34EPA +0.3518 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 1-A.Brown to CHI 48 for 18 yards (24-M.Muhammad).

  8. Q2 0:03 · 1st & 10 at CHI 48EPA +6.5448 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  9. Q3 6:13 · 2nd & 12 at NE 48EPA +1.8116 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 1-A.Brown to CHI 36 for 16 yards (29-T.Stevenson).

  10. Q3 3:52 · 1st & 15 at CHI 30EPA +3.5430 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 82-E.Raridon for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  11. Q4 1:01 · 2nd & 10 at CHI 45EPA +1.3516 yds

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to CHI 29 for 16 yards (12-D.Bush) [50-G.Jarrett].

CHI explosive plays (10) — runs of 10+ and passes of 15+ yards

  1. Q1 11:30 · 1st & 10 at CHI 46EPA -1.5226 yds

    18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden to NE 28 for 26 yards (4-C.Woodson).

  2. Q1 2:32 · 2nd & 9 at CHI 38EPA -4.3958 yds

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 10-L.Burden to NE 4 for 58 yards (31-K.Byard).

  3. Q2 2:21 · 2nd & 11 at CHI 30EPA -2.4922 yds

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden to NE 48 for 22 yards (22-C.Woods; 14-R.Spillane). PENALTY on NE-50-G.Jacas, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NE 48.

  4. Q2 1:16 · 2nd & 4 at NE 27EPA -0.7510 yds

    4-D.Swift left end to NE 17 for 10 yards (91-E.Ponder).

  5. Q2 0:21 · 3rd & 17 at NE 24EPA -4.3624 yds

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  6. Q3 11:04 · 2nd & 14 at NE 43EPA -2.4522 yds

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 84-C.Loveland to NE 21 for 22 yards (23-J.Reed).

  7. Q4 13:14 · 3rd & 11 at CHI 13EPA -2.9321 yds

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 34 for 21 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).

  8. Q4 11:54 · 2nd & 5 at CHI 39EPA -0.8710 yds

    (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right tackle to CHI 49 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard; 22-C.Woods).

  9. Q4 4:59 · 3rd & 9 at CHI 10EPA -2.3421 yds

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 31 for 21 yards (25-M.Jones).

  10. Q4 3:32 · 2nd & 12 at CHI 29EPA -1.8721 yds

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to 50 for 21 yards (0-C.Gonzalez; 31-K.Byard).

Red Zone (off/def)
3/4 · 3/4

EPA is from New England's side: positive helped New England. Play text is the NFL's own.

New England red-zone trip 1 of 4 · Touchdown

  1. Q2 12:54 · 1st & 10 at CHI 20EPA +0.86

    38-R.Stevenson left guard to CHI 7 for 13 yards (21-C.Lewis; 29-T.Stevenson).

  2. Q2 12:16 · 1st & Goal at CHI 7EPA -0.53

    38-R.Stevenson left end to CHI 7 for no gain (48-D.Jackson).

  3. Q2 11:37 · 2nd & Goal at CHI 7EPA +2.08Touchdown

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right guard to CHI 1 for 6 yards (20-C.Phillips). New England challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

New England red-zone trip 2 of 4 · Turnover

  1. Q2 3:32 · 1st & 10 at CHI 15EPA -5.27

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 82-E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by 48-D.Jackson at CHI -7. Touchback.

New England red-zone trip 3 of 4 · Touchdown

None.

New England red-zone trip 4 of 4 · Touchdown

None.

CHI red-zone trip 1 of 4 · Touchdown

  1. Q1 1:43 · 1st & Goal at NE 4EPA -0.96Touchdown

    4-D.Swift left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

CHI red-zone trip 2 of 4 · Field goal

  1. Q2 8:57 · 4th & 1 at NE 20EPA -1.68

    4-D.Swift left tackle pushed ob at NE 15 for 5 yards (4-C.Woodson).

  2. Q2 8:20 · 1st & 10 at NE 15EPA -0.38

    10-L.Burden left end pushed ob at NE 8 for 7 yards (53-C.Elliss).

  3. Q2 7:49 · 2nd & 3 at NE 8EPA +1.51

    18-C.Williams left guard to NE 8 for no gain. PENALTY on CHI-18-C.Williams, Illegal Forward Handoff, 5 yards, enforced at NE 8.

  4. Q2 7:12 · 3rd & 8 at NE 13EPA +0.85

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 15-R.Odunze. ** Injury Update: NE-31-K.Byard has returned to the game. Penalty on CHI-15-R.Odunze, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

  5. Q2 7:08 · 4th & 8 at NE 13EPA -0.19

    8-C.Santos 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

CHI red-zone trip 3 of 4 · Touchdown

  1. Q2 0:34 · 1st & 10 at NE 17EPA +0.45

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left.

  2. Q2 0:27 · 2nd & 10 at NE 17EPA +1.09

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at NE 24 for -7 yards (25-M.Jones).

CHI red-zone trip 4 of 4 · Touchdown

  1. Q3 9:48 · 2nd & 1 at NE 12EPA -1.51Touchdown

    18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3rd Down (off/def)
2/7 · 4/13

EPA is from New England's side: positive helped New England. Play text is the NFL's own.

New England on third down — 2 of 7 converted

  1. Q1 12:16 · 3rd & 6 at CHI 46EPA -1.52Stopped

    (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to CHI 45 for 1 yard (48-D.Jackson).

  2. Q1 8:28 · 3rd & 4 at NE 33EPA -1.48Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 18-K.Williams [92-D.Hardy].

  3. Q1 4:33 · 3rd & 8 at NE 36EPA -1.44Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas to NE 35 for -1 yards (6-K.Gordon, 21-C.Lewis).

  4. Q1 0:14 · 3rd & 2 at NE 34EPA +1.62Converted

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 82-E.Raridon to NE 49 for 15 yards (21-C.Lewis).

  5. Q3 8:20 · 3rd & 7 at NE 37EPA +2.18Converted

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry to 50 for 13 yards (50-G.Jarrett).

  6. Q3 0:40 · 3rd & 6 at NE 44EPA -1.04Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end to NE 48 for 4 yards (12-D.Bush).

  7. Q4 7:11 · 3rd & 20 at NE 33EPA -0.31Stopped

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 46 for 13 yards (92-D.Hardy; 6-K.Gordon).

CHI on third down — 4 of 13 converted

  1. Q1 10:02 · 3rd & 7 at NE 25EPA +1.44Stopped

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 14-K.Raymond.

  2. Q1 6:28 · 3rd & 7 at CHI 24EPA +1.41Stopped

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift to CHI 24 for no gain (53-C.Elliss; 22-C.Woods).

  3. Q2 9:37 · 3rd & 7 at NE 26EPA -0.02Stopped

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze to NE 20 for 6 yards (14-R.Spillane; 25-M.Jones). (Virtual Measurement).

  4. Q2 7:12 · 3rd & 8 at NE 13EPA +0.85Stopped

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 15-R.Odunze. ** Injury Update: NE-31-K.Byard has returned to the game. Penalty on CHI-15-R.Odunze, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

  5. Q2 0:21 · 3rd & 17 at NE 24EPA -4.36Converted

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 10-L.Burden for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  6. Q3 13:52 · 3rd & 2 at CHI 36EPA -0.94Converted

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end pushed ob at CHI 41 for 5 yards (22-C.Woods).

  7. Q3 3:09 · 3rd & 8 at CHI 28EPA +1.39Stopped

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 84-C.Loveland.

  8. Q4 13:14 · 3rd & 11 at CHI 13EPA -2.93Converted

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 34 for 21 yards (0-C.Gonzalez).

  9. Q4 9:44 · 3rd & 2 at NE 43EPA +1.89Stopped

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Loveland.

  10. Q4 8:09 · 3rd & 11 at NE 35EPA +0.93Stopped

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right [53-C.Elliss].

  11. Q4 5:27 · 3rd & 1 at CHI 18EPA +1.26Stopped

    65-L.Newman reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 26 for 8 yards (4-C.Woodson). PENALTY on CHI-13-Z.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20.

  12. Q4 4:59 · 3rd & 9 at CHI 10EPA -2.34Converted

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze to CHI 31 for 21 yards (25-M.Jones).

  13. Q4 1:46 · 3rd & 5 at NE 30EPA +1.68Stopped

    (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at NE 40 for -10 yards (90-C.Barmore). NE-90-C.Barmore was injured during the play.

Player of the Game (Win Probability Added)
Drake Maye
Drake Maye
+17% WPA

Mostly as a passer.

EPA is from New England's side: positive helped New England. Play text is the NFL's own.

Every play credited to D.Maye (win probability added)

  1. Q1 14:53 · 1st & 10 at NE 31EPA -0.53-1.8% win prob.

    10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 1-A.Brown.

  2. Q1 14:49 · 2nd & 10 at NE 31EPA +1.92+6.4% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at 50 for 19 yards (1-J.Johnson).

  3. Q1 13:44 · 1st & 20 at NE 40EPA +0.10+1.0% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 32-T.Henderson to NE 48 for 8 yards (12-D.Bush).

  4. Q1 13:04 · 2nd & 12 at NE 48EPA -0.10-1.0% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 32-T.Henderson to CHI 46 for 6 yards (24-M.Muhammad; 31-D.Thieneman).

  5. Q1 11:35 · 4th & 5 at CHI 45EPA -2.88-4.2% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at CHI 46 for -1 yards (6-K.Gordon).

  6. Q1 8:28 · 3rd & 4 at NE 33EPA -1.48-3.2% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 18-K.Williams [92-D.Hardy].

  7. Q1 4:33 · 3rd & 8 at NE 36EPA -1.44-2.1% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas to NE 35 for -1 yards (6-K.Gordon, 21-C.Lewis).

  8. Q1 1:32 · 1st & 10 at NE 26EPA -0.10-0.6% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 30 for 4 yards (44-N.Sewell).

  9. Q1 0:14 · 3rd & 2 at NE 34EPA +1.62+1.9% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 82-E.Raridon to NE 49 for 15 yards (21-C.Lewis).

  10. Q2 15:00 · 1st & 10 at NE 49EPA +0.63+0.3% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 38-R.Stevenson to CHI 42 for 9 yards (12-D.Bush).

  11. Q2 14:26 · 2nd & 1 at CHI 42EPA -0.61-1.1% win prob.

    10-D.Maye up the middle to CHI 42 for no gain (90-N.Gallimore).

  12. Q2 13:31 · 1st & 10 at CHI 36EPA +1.01+3.3% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry to CHI 20 for 16 yards (29-T.Stevenson).

  13. Q2 11:37 · 2nd & Goal at CHI 7EPA +2.08+2.6% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right guard to CHI 1 for 6 yards (20-C.Phillips). New England challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  14. Q2 6:58 · 1st & 10 at NE 32EPA +1.00+2.3% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 86-E.Chism to NE 48 for 16 yards (31-D.Thieneman).

  15. Q2 5:42 · 2nd & 6 at CHI 48EPA +1.10+2.4% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 82-E.Raridon to CHI 37 for 11 yards (48-D.Jackson; 29-T.Stevenson).

  16. Q2 4:21 · 2nd & 3 at CHI 30EPA +0.85+1.2% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end to CHI 15 for 15 yards (31-D.Thieneman).

  17. Q2 3:32 · 1st & 10 at CHI 15EPA -5.27-10.3% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 82-E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by 48-D.Jackson at CHI -7. Touchback.

  18. Q2 0:09 · 1st & 10 at NE 34EPA +0.35+1.1% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 1-A.Brown to CHI 48 for 18 yards (24-M.Muhammad).

  19. Q2 0:03 · 1st & 10 at CHI 48EPA +6.54+9.4% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  20. Q3 9:41 · 1st & 10 at NE 20EPA +0.97+2.3% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry ran ob at NE 34 for 14 yards.

  21. Q3 9:07 · 1st & 10 at NE 34EPA -0.55-1.0% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 1-A.Brown (24-M.Muhammad).

  22. Q3 8:20 · 3rd & 7 at NE 37EPA +2.18+2.9% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry to 50 for 13 yards (50-G.Jarrett).

  23. Q3 6:13 · 2nd & 12 at NE 48EPA +1.81+1.6% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 1-A.Brown to CHI 36 for 16 yards (29-T.Stevenson).

  24. Q3 5:34 · 1st & 10 at CHI 36EPA -1.05-1.1% win prob.

    10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to CHI 38 for -2 yards (59-J.Kromah, 48-D.Jackson).

  25. Q3 4:50 · 2nd & 12 at CHI 38EPA +1.80+3.9% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to CHI 25 for 13 yards (21-C.Lewis).

  26. Q3 3:52 · 1st & 15 at CHI 30EPA +3.54+10.6% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 82-E.Raridon for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  27. Q3 2:50 · 1st & 10 at NE 26EPA +0.92+1.3% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to NE 40 for 14 yards (21-C.Lewis).

  28. Q3 1:33 · 2nd & 9 at NE 41EPA +0.75+2.0% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas to NE 49 for 8 yards (31-D.Thieneman).

  29. Q3 0:40 · 3rd & 6 at NE 44EPA -1.04-3.6% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end to NE 48 for 4 yards (12-D.Bush).

  30. Q4 7:57 · 1st & 10 at NE 43EPA -0.39-2.3% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 3-D.Douglas.

  31. Q4 7:52 · 2nd & 10 at NE 43EPA -1.64-4.5% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at NE 33 for -10 yards (sack split by 31-D.Thieneman and 92-D.Hardy).

  32. Q4 7:11 · 3rd & 20 at NE 33EPA -0.31-2.7% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 46 for 13 yards (92-D.Hardy; 6-K.Gordon).

  33. Q4 1:28 · 1st & 10 at NE 25EPA -0.45-0.1% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry pushed ob at NE 28 for 3 yards (31-D.Thieneman; 6-K.Gordon).

  34. Q4 1:21 · 2nd & 7 at NE 28EPA +0.83+0.3% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 1-A.Brown pushed ob at NE 42 for 14 yards (1-J.Johnson) [50-G.Jarrett].

  35. Q4 1:09 · 1st & 10 at CHI 45EPA -0.38-0.8% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 1-A.Brown (29-T.Stevenson).

  36. Q4 1:01 · 2nd & 10 at CHI 45EPA +1.35+0.8% win prob.

    (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to CHI 29 for 16 yards (12-D.Bush) [50-G.Jarrett].

Good, Bad & Ugly

Good
  • The offense averaged +0.18 EPA per play — better than an average offense.
  • Scored touchdowns on 3 of 4 red-zone trips (75%), well above the 55% league norm.
Bad
  • The defense allowed +0.20 EPA per play — worse than an average defense.
  • Lost the turnover battle by 1.